In the short term the Earth is warming, probably because of the greenhouse effect caused by carbon dioxide pollution of the atmosphere. Most of the greenhouse gases are made by the rich countries who will not reduce them much because of the damage that would do to their economies. Instead they blame the poor countries for burning their forests. Warming will probably change the growth of plants, leading to more mass movements of people. Sea level will rise, flooding major coastal cities.

If we do manage to stop global warming then, in the medium term (over the next few thousand years) the Earth is probably heading toward another glacial period. This will cause even more problems than global warming. So either way the people of Earth are probably in for a period of major change.

Change is not new, of course. Our ancestors evolved during the last glacial and we are a very adaptable species. But change usually comes at a cost. In the past this was was war. As we have seen, the movements of horse-riding people off the steppes of Asia 5000 years ago was due to climate change, and this had widespread repercussions throughout Asia. We can expect similar major changes to accompany future changes in climate.

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